Decision Making Mistakes, Using Probability And Statistics ! - Udemy

What you'll learn
Learn about the common mistakes and misconceptions people make, when using Probabilities in their judgements and decisions.
Learn about the common mistakes and misconceptions people make, when using Statistics and statistical inferences, in their judgements and decisions.
What are the Psychological Biases and Fallacies, that make infer wrongly, when using Probability and Statistics ?
Hoe can we try and avoid such pitfalls, mistakes and misconceptions, when using Probability and Statistics in decision making ?
Requirements
High School Math knowledge, of basic Probability and Statistical concepts
Description
Most of us have learnt some Probability and Statistics in High School, or later in college. We know the basic concepts, and may knowingly, or unknowingly, use it in our judgements and decisions !However, what we may not be aware of, are the many many ways we can go wrong, in using these concepts, from Probability and Statistics, for making our decisions ! This includes the common errors , the many misconceptions we have, the conclusions we wrongly jump to, in judging probabilities, and risks, sampling and statistics.The Human brain is not wired to intuitively understand probability or statistics. Researchers of the brain, believe that mathematical truths make little automatic sense to our mind, especially when considering random and non-random outcomes, or when considering a large amount of data. And because of that, we automatically and subconsciously end up making a lot of mistakes, in assessing risks and likelihood.This Course will help you learn about, and try to avoid and minimize, such mistakes and misconceptions. It will be useful for everyone, but especially for Leaders and Managers, whose various judgements and decisions can affect many people, organizations and countries!It is a Beginner level Course, and it assumes only a basic High school level knowledge of Probability and Statistics. Disclaimer: You will not learn any Probability or Statistics here, you will only learn about the mistakes and misconceptions commonly made, when using Probability and Statistics in Decision Making.Some Images and Videos courtesy Pixabay, Pexels, Pressfoto and FreePik. Some Music snippets courtesy Bensound.
Overview
Section 1: Introduction
Lecture 1 Course Introduction, Part 1
Lecture 2 Course Introduction, Part 2
Lecture 3 Course Curriculum/Roadmap
Lecture 4 An Introduction to me, your Instructor for the Course!
Section 2: Sampling: Likely Mistakes and Misconceptions
Lecture 5 Sampling Issues, Part 1
Lecture 6 Sampling Issues, Part 2
Lecture 7 Sampling Issues, Part 3
Lecture 8 A Brief Recap and Learnings
Section 3: Central Tendencies, and their Limitations
Lecture 9 The Limitations of Central Tendencies 1
Lecture 10 The Limitations of Central Tendencies 2
Lecture 11 A Brief Recap and Learnings
Section 4: The Simpson's Paradox, and other Misleading Misconceptions in Statistics
Lecture 12 The Simpson's Paradox 1
Lecture 13 The Simpson's Paradox 2
Lecture 14 When the Data does not represent Reality
Lecture 15 Misleading Reports, Charts and Graphs
Lecture 16 A Request!
Lecture 17 A Brief Recap and Learnings
Section 5: Probability and Randomness
Lecture 18 Probability and Randomness, Part 1
Lecture 19 Probability and Randomness, Part 2
Lecture 20 Probability and Randomness, Part 3
Lecture 21 Probability and Randomness, Part 4
Lecture 22 Other Probability Mistakes and Fallacies
Lecture 23 A Brief Recap and Learnings
Section 6: Cognitive Biases and Fallacies that affect Probability & Statistical Judgements
Lecture 24 Representativeness, Part 1
Lecture 25 Representativeness, Part 2
Lecture 26 The Availability Heuristic, Part 1
Lecture 27 The Availability Heuristic, Part 2
Lecture 28 The Framing Effect , Part 1
Lecture 29 The Framing Effect , Part 2
Lecture 30 The Framing Effect and Loss Aversion
Lecture 31 Survivorship Bias
Lecture 32 A Brief Recap and Learnings
Section 7: Extreme and Normal Distributions, and Bonus Lecture
Lecture 33 Mediocristan and Extremistan
Lecture 34 The Black Swan
Lecture 35 Credits and Gratitude !
Lecture 36 How to download your UDEMY CERTIFICATE
Leaders and Managers who want to avoid Statistics and Probability mistakes, while making decisions,Management Students, and aspiring Leaders, who want to use Probability and Statistics, more accurately and effectively,Anyone who wants to avoid the pitfalls, mistakes and misconceptions, when using Probability and Statistics.

Homepage

https://www.udemy.com/course/probability-statistics-mistakes-misconceptions-lessons/